Return and CAGR
Return says how much the simulated account grew in total over the dates you're looking at; CAGR turns that into an average yearly rate, so a two-year window and a twelve-year window can be compared.
Von Lohengramm T7 - BTCUSD started at 100 on 1 January 2015 and stood at about 1,080,325 on 13 October 2026. That's a Return of +1080225%: the account is about 10,800 times its starting size. Spread over those 11.8 years, the same growth works out to a CAGR of +120.0%, meaning the account more than doubled in an average year.
Both numbers describe the same line on the same dates. Return is the total; CAGR is the pace.
Return: the whole distance
Return compares the last value of the account line with the first value of the window you're looking at. A line that goes from 100 to 250 has a Return of +150%. It looks only at those two points, so a strategy that rose smoothly and one that crashed 60% halfway and then recovered can show the same Return. That's why you always read it next to Max DD.
Return = last value ÷ first value − 1, using the account line inside the chosen window.
Why the equity chart goes far above 100
Every account line starts at 100, and still the Equity chart of Von Lohengramm T7 has an axis running up to 1.2M. The reason is compounding: each trade starts with whatever the previous trades left behind.
[On a normal scale the first six years look flat, because the account was still small. From 2021 each trade moves a much larger amount, so the line climbs steeply. The blue line is Buy & Hold BTC from the same start.]
Here's how the first few trades of Von Lohengramm T7 stacked up:
| Trade | Dates | Account at entry | Result | Account after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jul to Aug 2015 | 100 | −2.9% | about 97 |
| 2 | Sep 2015 to Jan 2018 | 97 | +6,351% | about 6,260 |
| 3 | Jul 2018 | 6,262 | −2.2% | about 6,126 |
| 4 | Mar to Oct 2019 | 6,126 | +109% | about 12,826 |
By 2021 the account was over 100,000, and a 50% gain then added 50,000 or more in one go. That's why the line looks flat for years and then shoots up. The early gains in percent were just as large; they just moved smaller amounts.
Two things help when reading a chart like this:
- Click LOG on the chart. On a log scale, equal heights mean equal percentage moves, so a doubling in 2016 looks as big as a doubling in 2024.
- Remember the 100 is not a currency. Put 1,000 in your head instead and every number is ten times bigger; the percentages stay the same.
CAGR: the average yearly pace
CAGR stands for compound annual growth rate: the percentage the account would have grown by if it had grown by exactly the same amount every single year.
For Von Lohengramm T7: what yearly rate turns 100 into 1,080,325 in 11.78 years? Multiplying by 2.20 every year does it, so the CAGR is +120.0%. In reality the strategy had flat years, losing stretches and a few spectacular ones. CAGR smooths all of that into one comparable figure.
That makes different lengths of history comparable. Exponential Order Flow Pressure - SOXX, a chip-stock strategy, shows a Return of about +2,056% since 2015 and a CAGR of +29.8%; Von Lohengramm T7 is far ahead on both, but a strategy that only exists since 2024 can only be compared with them through CAGR.
CAGR = (last value ÷ first value) ^ (1 ÷ years) − 1. Years = calendar time between the first and last bar of the window, in days ÷ 365.25. It doesn't depend on how many bars or trades there were.
Same Return, different CAGR
| Account | Time | Return | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 → 250 | 10 years | +150% | about +9.6% a year |
| 100 → 250 | 2 years | +150% | about +58.1% a year |
Short windows inflate CAGR
CAGR assumes the pace of the window carries on for a full year. Over a few weeks, that blows small moves up into huge numbers: one 5-day bar of +2% works out to roughly +325% a year. If you click 1Y or pick a shorter range, read Return and treat CAGR with suspicion. Below about a year, CAGR mostly measures luck.
Comparing with Buy & Hold
The blue Buy & Hold line on a strategy's Equity chart shows what happened to someone who bought the same market on the first day and never sold. For BTC since 2015 that turned 100 into about 29,600, a CAGR of roughly 62%. A strategy is only interesting if it beats that line on growth, on drawdown, or ideally both. Some strategies make less than Buy & Hold but fall much less on the way; that can still be worth it, depending on what you can stomach.
Dates change both numbers
Both numbers use the first and last bar of whatever window you pick. Click 3Y and you get the Return and CAGR of the last three years only. On a strategy the trades inside stay exactly the same; the app doesn't rerun the strategy, it just measures a different piece of the same line. A portfolio is different: a new window restarts its account at 100 on your first day and replays every purchase, as How the simulated account moves explains.
On the free version, both numbers stop at the free cutoff date three months back, so they won't exactly match a member's.
When you see "–"
Return and CAGR need at least two bars in the window. CAGR also needs a positive value at both ends. "–" means "can't be worked out", never zero.
On portfolios
A portfolio's Return and CAGR come from its combined account line, not from averaging the strategies inside. Four Pillars Index [GPS] shows +347605% and a CAGR of +99.8% since 2015: its line also starts at 100, and its chart axis runs past 300k for the same compounding reason.